MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 8 – 4 Boston Red Sox. 31 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.33 | +78.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.11 | +65.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.83 | +33.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ryan Vilade | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.59 | +32.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.95 | +32.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.09 | +32.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.48 | +32.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Cedric Mullins | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.23 | +31.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | under | 3.5 | 1.88 | +31.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Ryan Vilade | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.37 | +27.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.74 | +27.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.63 | +22.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 3.02 | +21.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Trevor Story | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.94 | +19.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Connor Wong | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.23 | +17.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Ben Williamson | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.55 | +17.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.52 | +17.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Trevor Story | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.62 | +16.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.34 | +10.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.67 | +10.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Taylor Walls | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.07 | +10.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ben Williamson | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.37 | +7.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +7.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.08 | +7.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Connor Wong | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.24 | +7.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nick Fortes | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.32 | +5.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +5.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.57 | +3.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Taylor Walls | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.93 | +2.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.75 | +2.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.37 | +0.1% | 0 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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