NBA · Fri, May 8, 2026
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Final score: Los Angeles Lakers 107 – 125 Oklahoma City Thunder. 65 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 210.5 | 1.89 | +22.5% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 211.5 | 1.87 | +20.7% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -15.5 | 1.91 | +11.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 2.02 | +99.9% | 18 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.98 | +96.0% | 18 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.98 | +96.0% | 20 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 3.5 | 2.19 | +95.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.86 | +84.1% | 20 | LOSS |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.80 | +78.2% | 18 | WIN |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 4.5 | 2.11 | +75.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.97 | +75.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Joe | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 2.14 | +72.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 10.5 | 2.09 | +72.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jake LaRavia | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.95 | +71.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.89 | +67.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.90 | +59.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.96 | +58.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 10.5 | 2.01 | +55.4% | 14 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.79 | +55.1% | 10 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.83 | +54.9% | 7 | WIN |
| Isaiah Joe | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.69 | +51.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.78 | +50.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 3.5 | 2.21 | +49.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.72 | +46.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.20 | +45.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.12 | +45.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 8.5 | 2.08 | +39.8% | 9 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.92 | +38.7% | 22 | LOSS |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.94 | +38.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.93 | +36.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.07 | +36.0% | 9 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 20.5 | 1.93 | +35.3% | 23 | WIN |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.84 | +34.6% | 4 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.85 | +32.6% | 12 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.67 | +32.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 9.5 | 1.68 | +31.9% | 9 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.03 | +31.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +30.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Jake LaRavia | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.92 | +28.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.79 | +27.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.28 | +27.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.16 | +26.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 15.5 | 2.00 | +26.4% | 22 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.56 | +26.0% | 2 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 21.5 | 1.98 | +23.3% | 23 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.68 | +22.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.55 | +22.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.83 | +21.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.65 | +21.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.80 | +20.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 28.5 | 1.85 | +19.5% | 22 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 2.04 | +18.7% | 12 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.63 | +18.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.25 | +16.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 1.86 | +16.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.96 | +14.5% | 10 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.29 | +14.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 29.5 | 1.97 | +13.4% | 22 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 4.5 | 1.74 | +13.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.43 | +10.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 18.5 | 1.95 | +10.4% | 31 | WIN |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.85 | +7.4% | 16 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 1.79 | +4.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 5.5 | 2.15 | +2.9% | 6 | WIN |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.82 | +1.0% | 10 | WIN |
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