NBA · Fri, May 29, 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Final score: Oklahoma City Thunder 91 – 118 San Antonio Spurs. 51 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | -3.5 | 1.91 | +4.6% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 218.5 | 1.91 | +0.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 2.5 | 2.09 | +94.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 2.06 | +94.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.13 | +93.8% | 9 | LOSS |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 13.5 | 2.00 | +89.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +84.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.12 | +79.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.04 | +72.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.97 | +70.7% | 10 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 7.5 | 2.03 | +70.5% | 9 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.94 | +68.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.92 | +64.4% | 28 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.88 | +61.4% | 17 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.95 | +57.3% | 28 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 7.5 | 2.12 | +54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.31 | +53.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.80 | +53.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 12.5 | 1.93 | +50.7% | 10 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 13.5 | 1.75 | +49.8% | 10 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.03 | +47.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.87 | +45.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 8.5 | 1.68 | +40.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.76 | +39.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.11 | +38.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.87 | +36.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.93 | +33.0% | 10 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.25 | +32.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.68 | +31.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 1.70 | +31.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.78 | +30.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.32 | +26.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.49 | +24.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.85 | +24.4% | 12 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.71 | +23.9% | 3 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.73 | +22.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.87 | +17.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.34 | +12.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.91 | +9.8% | 10 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 2.03 | +8.7% | 11 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.91 | +8.7% | 10 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 29.5 | 1.85 | +6.5% | 15 | LOSS |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 12.5 | 1.96 | +6.0% | 13 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.15 | +5.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.93 | +5.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.83 | +4.1% | 13 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.19 | +3.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +3.0% | 11 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.69 | +1.4% | 0 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.81 | +0.3% | 7 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.33 | +0.1% | 3 | LOSS |
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