MLB · Sat, May 9, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Final score: St. Louis Cardinals 2 – 4 San Diego Padres. 34 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 4.5 | 1.67 | +16.9% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 8 | 1.93 | +6.6% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 7.5 | 1.81 | +4.6% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.23 | +4.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.40 | +121.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.90 | +117.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +108.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.40 | +100.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ramon Laureano | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.25 | +78.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.40 | +75.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.35 | +54.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +54.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Ivan Herrera | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.60 | +49.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +48.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.26 | +44.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Randy Vasquez | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.29 | +41.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.77 | +38.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.30 | +35.4% | 1 | WIN |
| JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.25 | +33.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Randy Vasquez | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.66 | +29.3% | 6 | WIN |
| JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +27.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Gavin Sheets | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +27.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.05 | +24.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Victor Scott II | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.47 | +18.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Nathan Church | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +14.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Masyn Winn | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +10.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.63 | +9.9% | 7 | WIN |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.15 | +8.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.22 | +8.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +7.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +6.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +4.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Ramon Laureano | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.83 | +1.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Masyn Winn | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.65 | +1.3% | 0 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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