MLB · Sat, May 9, 2026
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Final score: Washington Nationals 7 – 8 Miami Marlins. 26 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 4.33 | +29.9% | WIN |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.35 | +16.2% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.87 | +3.2% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 2.20 | +81.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +74.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +62.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.86 | +61.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +49.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.51 | +43.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.83 | +43.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +41.6% | 1 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.77 | +35.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Drew Millas | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.14 | +33.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.26 | +31.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.62 | +30.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.77 | +23.1% | 6 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.26 | +18.2% | 1 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +17.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.91 | +16.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.53 | +10.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +5.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Xavier Edwards | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.50 | +4.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +4.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Leo Jimenez | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +3.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jakob Marsee | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.40 | +2.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Xavier Edwards | Miami Marlins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.51 | +1.1% | 1 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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