MLB · Sun, May 10, 2026
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
Final score: New York Mets 1 – 5 Arizona Diamondbacks. 22 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 6.5 | 6.49 | +94.7% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.87 | +4.4% | WIN |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 3.17 | +3.5% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 2.02 | +2.8% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Del Castillo | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.25 | +104.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +101.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +66.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nolan Arenado | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +59.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Andy Ibanez | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.32 | +58.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.30 | +23.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Adrian Del Castillo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +23.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.05 | +22.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.00 | +21.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.56 | +20.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +17.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.60 | +14.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +12.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.57 | +12.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Slater | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.36 | +10.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Mark Vientos | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.68 | +9.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +7.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.91 | +6.7% | 1 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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