NBA · Sun, May 10, 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers
Final score: Oklahoma City Thunder 131 – 108 Los Angeles Lakers. 102 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 210.5 | 1.91 | +23.2% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 211.5 | 1.93 | +22.7% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 214.5 | 1.83 | +14.9% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 10.5 | 1.95 | +11.0% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 8.5 | 1.98 | +7.7% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 9.5 | 1.87 | +7.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 4.5 | 2.30 | +121.9% | 10 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 3.5 | 2.23 | +99.3% | 10 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.95 | +93.0% | 24 | LOSS |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.98 | +93.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.94 | +92.1% | 24 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 8.5 | 2.14 | +90.6% | 9 | LOSS |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.88 | +86.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.83 | +81.2% | 24 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.93 | +81.0% | 10 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.91 | +80.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.98 | +76.3% | 10 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.94 | +72.4% | 10 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.35 | +70.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.92 | +64.4% | 10 | WIN |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.95 | +63.8% | 21 | LOSS |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.93 | +63.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 19.5 | 1.80 | +63.3% | 18 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.88 | +62.9% | 12 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 10.5 | 2.05 | +61.9% | 16 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.04 | +59.5% | 12 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.90 | +59.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.96 | +58.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.85 | +57.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 10.5 | 2.02 | +56.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.83 | +52.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.82 | +51.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.12 | +50.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 3.5 | 2.20 | +48.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.13 | +45.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.82 | +44.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 8.5 | 2.14 | +43.9% | 9 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.79 | +43.1% | 18 | LOSS |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.66 | +42.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.99 | +42.6% | 16 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.97 | +42.4% | 18 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 5.5 | 2.01 | +42.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 22.5 | 1.85 | +41.6% | 17 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.98 | +40.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.10 | +40.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.14 | +39.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 27.5 | 1.95 | +38.9% | 23 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 4.5 | 1.66 | +38.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.49 | +38.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 21.5 | 1.97 | +36.7% | 17 | WIN |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.72 | +35.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.32 | +35.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.84 | +34.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.87 | +32.7% | 18 | LOSS |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.69 | +32.3% | 8 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.95 | +30.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.96 | +30.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.63 | +29.0% | 4 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 20.5 | 1.83 | +28.3% | 19 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 1.95 | +28.1% | 9 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.95 | +26.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 2.03 | +26.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.99 | +25.7% | 18 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.14 | +25.7% | 9 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.59 | +25.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.24 | +24.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.24 | +24.3% | 5 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 21.5 | 1.98 | +23.3% | 19 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.68 | +23.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.44 | +20.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.49 | +20.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 7.5 | 1.83 | +20.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 2.04 | +18.7% | 16 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.80 | +17.9% | 17 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.65 | +17.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.01 | +17.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 28.5 | 1.81 | +16.9% | 23 | LOSS |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.75 | +15.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.69 | +14.8% | 9 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.75 | +13.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.95 | +13.2% | 21 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.48 | +13.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 29.5 | 1.95 | +12.2% | 23 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.68 | +11.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 9.5 | 2.08 | +10.4% | 9 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.43 | +10.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 5.5 | 2.10 | +9.5% | 9 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.87 | +9.3% | 18 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 4.5 | 1.66 | +7.8% | 9 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.25 | +7.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.23 | +6.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 22.5 | 1.96 | +5.9% | 19 | LOSS |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 6.5 | 1.71 | +4.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.14 | +2.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.05 | +2.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 10.5 | 1.83 | +2.3% | 12 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 2.14 | +2.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 5.5 | 2.12 | +1.4% | 9 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 7.5 | 2.06 | +1.2% | 8 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 6.5 | 1.99 | +1.1% | 6 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 2.04 | +0.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.00 | +0.0% | 2 | LOSS |
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