MLB · Sun, May 10, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Final score: St. Louis Cardinals 2 – 3 San Diego Padres. 35 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 4.5 | 1.70 | +19.0% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 8 | 1.93 | +4.6% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.25 | +4.1% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.98 | +2.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.70 | +94.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.60 | +86.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.10 | +84.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +74.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.50 | +73.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +58.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.25 | +42.1% | 0 | WIN |
| JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +36.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.20 | +28.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Masyn Winn | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.05 | +24.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 1.87 | +23.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Ramon Laureano | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.99 | +23.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.87 | +22.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.30 | +22.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Pedro Pages | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.40 | +21.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.71 | +18.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.65 | +18.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.00 | +18.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.20 | +17.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Nathan Church | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.10 | +15.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +12.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +8.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.68 | +6.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.28 | +4.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Miguel Andujar | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.68 | +4.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Thomas Saggese | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +3.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Miguel Andujar | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +2.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.70 | +1.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +1.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Victor Scott II | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.24 | +0.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.87 | +0.1% | 0 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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