MLB · Sun, May 10, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 4 – 1 Boston Red Sox. 27 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 6.05 | +81.5% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 6.5 | 1.92 | +8.9% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.29 | +5.8% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.00 | +131.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.40 | +122.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +117.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +58.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +40.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +40.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Taylor Walls | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.95 | +37.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cedric Mullins | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +33.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.89 | +33.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +29.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +24.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Trevor Story | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.26 | +24.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.40 | +22.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.30 | +20.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.68 | +20.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 2.09 | +18.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Ryan Vilade | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.35 | +18.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +16.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Nick Fortes | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +15.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +7.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.17 | +6.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.43 | +6.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +3.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.35 | +0.5% | 0 | WIN |
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