MLB · Mon, May 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 8 – 5 Toronto Blue Jays. 14 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 7 | 1.89 | +6.3% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 7.5 | 2.02 | +5.5% | WIN |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.09 | +0.1% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.09 | +57.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +39.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.79 | +32.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Richie Palacios | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.99 | +22.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.93 | +21.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.68 | +6.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Ernie Clement | Toronto Blue Jays | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.57 | +6.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +5.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +1.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Daulton Varsho | Toronto Blue Jays | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.73 | +0.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Daulton Varsho | Toronto Blue Jays | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.34 | +0.1% | 0 | WIN |
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