NBA · Tue, May 12, 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers
Final score: Oklahoma City Thunder 115 – 110 Los Angeles Lakers. 72 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 212.5 | 1.91 | +20.9% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 213.5 | 1.91 | +19.8% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 214.5 | 1.89 | +18.0% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 12.5 | 1.91 | +16.2% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 11.5 | 1.89 | +13.0% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 10.5 | 1.95 | +12.1% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 25.5 | 1.53 | +7.1% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.98 | +96.0% | 28 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 2.11 | +87.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 4.5 | 2.22 | +84.9% | 18 | WIN |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.93 | +81.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.82 | +80.2% | 28 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 21.5 | 1.80 | +77.6% | 25 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 4.5 | 1.83 | +76.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.98 | +76.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.82 | +67.7% | 18 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.10 | +64.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Joe | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.83 | +63.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 8.5 | 1.95 | +62.8% | 8 | WIN |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.85 | +57.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.83 | +56.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.95 | +55.9% | 16 | WIN |
| Isaiah Joe | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +55.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 10.5 | 2.01 | +55.4% | 5 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.83 | +54.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 26.5 | 1.95 | +50.7% | 35 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.79 | +50.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.76 | +49.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 3.5 | 2.20 | +48.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.09 | +48.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.20 | +46.7% | 7 | WIN |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.13 | +42.1% | 5 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 21.5 | 2.24 | +39.5% | 24 | WIN |
| Jaylin Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.04 | +39.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 9.5 | 1.77 | +38.9% | 9 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 22.5 | 1.81 | +38.6% | 27 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.95 | +38.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Jaxson Hayes | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.65 | +37.4% | 5 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 21.5 | 1.97 | +36.7% | 27 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.45 | +36.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.70 | +34.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.83 | +32.6% | 5 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 2.12 | +32.2% | 12 | WIN |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 14.5 | 1.93 | +31.6% | 25 | LOSS |
| Marcus Smart | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +30.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.78 | +27.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.16 | +26.8% | 8 | LOSS |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 1.66 | +26.2% | 12 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.26 | +26.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.72 | +25.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.25 | +24.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.89 | +22.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Deandre Ayton | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.09 | +21.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.67 | +21.5% | 8 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.83 | +21.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 28.5 | 1.85 | +19.5% | 35 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 2.05 | +19.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | under | 8.5 | 2.02 | +18.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.65 | +17.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.60 | +17.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.70 | +15.5% | 6 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 1.75 | +15.0% | 10 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 29.5 | 1.98 | +13.9% | 35 | WIN |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | under | 5.5 | 2.17 | +13.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.58 | +10.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Rui Hachimura | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.25 | +10.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.27 | +9.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.20 | +5.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.53 | +1.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Points | over | 22.5 | 1.88 | +1.6% | 24 | WIN |
| Luke Kennard | Los Angeles Lakers | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.03 | +1.5% | 2 | WIN |
| LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Assists | over | 7.5 | 1.98 | +0.8% | 3 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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