MLB · Sat, May 16, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Final score: Boston Red Sox 3 – 2 Atlanta Braves. 6 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.69 | +7.1% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8 | 1.93 | +3.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.71 | +20.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.65 | +11.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +0.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.52 | +0.3% | 2 | WIN |
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