MLB · Mon, May 18, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
Final score: Boston Red Sox 3 – 1 Kansas City Royals. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 9 | 1.99 | +7.5% | WIN |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.93 | +2.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +16.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +15.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.84 | +12.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.41 | +7.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.39 | +6.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Maikel Garcia | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +5.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +5.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.41 | +4.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.45 | +2.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +1.3% | 1 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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