MLB · Thu, May 21, 2026
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Final score: New York Mets 2 – 1 Washington Nationals. 8 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.95 | +13.4% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.93 | +5.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.48 | +14.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.83 | +12.7% | 9 | WIN |
| Carson Benge | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +10.3% | 1 | WIN |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.56 | +1.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.59 | +1.5% | 2 | WIN |
| David Peterson | New York Mets | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.79 | +0.2% | 3 | LOSS |
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