NBA · Thu, May 21, 2026
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Final score: San Antonio Spurs 113 – 122 Oklahoma City Thunder. 44 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 215.5 | 1.91 | +18.1% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -6.5 | 1.91 | +2.3% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.33 | +107.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 4.5 | 2.04 | +101.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.98 | +91.9% | 13 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.83 | +71.7% | 10 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.83 | +69.5% | 17 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 13.5 | 1.96 | +67.8% | 17 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.83 | +66.5% | 8 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.76 | +66.1% | 8 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.88 | +61.4% | 25 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.87 | +57.0% | 22 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.21 | +56.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.18 | +56.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.91 | +51.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.85 | +47.0% | 25 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.72 | +46.4% | 5 | WIN |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.94 | +44.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 12.5 | 1.89 | +44.2% | 22 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.71 | +43.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.60 | +43.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.14 | +42.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 8.5 | 2.10 | +41.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.89 | +40.8% | 10 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.67 | +39.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.92 | +37.6% | 12 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.87 | +33.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 24.5 | 1.93 | +30.9% | 21 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 28.5 | 1.98 | +27.9% | 30 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.19 | +22.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.67 | +21.5% | 9 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.73 | +21.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.66 | +16.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.14 | +16.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.48 | +16.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.71 | +11.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.79 | +9.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.88 | +8.0% | 13 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.61 | +7.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 4.5 | 1.93 | +6.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.68 | +5.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.58 | +4.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.83 | +4.1% | 8 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.82 | +2.4% | 8 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
Members receive the daily Parlay of the Day plus every positive-EV pick the model generates across NBA, MLB and NHL match lines and player props. Membership is by application.