NBA · Sat, May 23, 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Final score: Oklahoma City Thunder 123 – 108 San Antonio Spurs. 47 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 216.5 | 1.95 | +18.1% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 217.5 | 1.91 | +15.8% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -1.5 | 1.95 | +11.3% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 2.16 | +91.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.10 | +91.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.88 | +85.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.00 | +80.4% | 24 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.85 | +80.3% | 15 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 14.5 | 1.80 | +78.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.82 | +74.8% | 7 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.80 | +73.2% | 15 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.91 | +73.1% | 14 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 13.5 | 2.01 | +72.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.85 | +71.4% | 15 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.93 | +67.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 14.5 | 1.83 | +66.6% | 4 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.85 | +65.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Ajay Mitchell | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.95 | +63.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.72 | +62.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.86 | +57.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.81 | +54.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.93 | +52.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.26 | +49.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 2.10 | +47.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.71 | +43.0% | 3 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.97 | +42.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.94 | +41.1% | 12 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 8.5 | 1.68 | +40.2% | 12 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 25.5 | 1.85 | +38.2% | 26 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.57 | +35.0% | 7 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 4.5 | 1.80 | +28.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.86 | +28.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 24.5 | 1.86 | +26.1% | 26 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +24.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 1.88 | +23.5% | 8 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.17 | +21.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.13 | +15.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.57 | +11.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.45 | +11.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +10.6% | 20 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.75 | +10.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.92 | +9.2% | 10 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.87 | +8.8% | 11 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.64 | +6.5% | 5 | WIN |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.78 | +2.3% | 14 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.68 | +2.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.07 | +1.7% | 3 | LOSS |
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