NBA · Mon, May 25, 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Final score: Oklahoma City Thunder 82 – 103 San Antonio Spurs. 53 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 218.5 | 1.91 | +14.6% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 219.5 | 1.95 | +14.5% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -2.5 | 1.91 | +12.8% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -1.5 | 1.93 | +10.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 14.5 | 1.99 | +90.3% | 12 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.99 | +84.6% | 12 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 2.5 | 1.97 | +83.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.97 | +82.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.98 | +80.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.85 | +75.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.85 | +74.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 13.5 | 1.97 | +68.7% | 8 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.91 | +61.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.21 | +60.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.41 | +59.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 16.5 | 2.00 | +58.9% | 13 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.20 | +56.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.83 | +54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.92 | +52.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 1.97 | +52.0% | 7 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.78 | +49.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.92 | +49.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 1.72 | +48.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.74 | +48.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.04 | +47.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.81 | +46.0% | 33 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.97 | +43.3% | 7 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.59 | +39.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 25.5 | 1.81 | +35.2% | 33 | LOSS |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.69 | +33.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.81 | +32.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.19 | +28.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.63 | +27.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.34 | +27.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Alex Caruso | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.81 | +27.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.87 | +25.8% | 13 | LOSS |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.65 | +21.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Luguentz Dort | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.44 | +20.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 4.5 | 1.68 | +20.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.56 | +9.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 29.5 | 1.89 | +8.8% | 19 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.72 | +8.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 2.01 | +7.7% | 9 | LOSS |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.87 | +7.5% | 10 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.93 | +7.0% | 5 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 14.5 | 1.86 | +6.6% | 13 | LOSS |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.91 | +6.4% | 5 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.33 | +6.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.86 | +5.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Cason Wallace | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.62 | +5.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 1.5 | 1.76 | +4.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jared McCain | Oklahoma City Thunder | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.19 | +3.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.04 | +0.2% | 5 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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