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MLB · Thu, Jul 9, 2026
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: Atlanta Braves 10 · 5 Pittsburgh Pirates. 23 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.82 | +0.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.03 | +29.7% | n/a | PUSH |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.19 | +25.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +23.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Mauricio Dubon | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.87 | +23.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.74 | +22.7% | 8 | LOSS |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.62 | +20.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.50 | +16.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.45 | +15.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.71 | +14.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Dominic Smith | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +12.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.98 | +12.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Mauricio Dubon | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | +8.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.78 | +7.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +7.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.61 | +6.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.45 | +5.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +5.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +3.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +2.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.87 | +2.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.01 | +0.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.17 | +0.3% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Pirates or Atlanta Bravesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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