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MLB · Tue, Jul 21, 2026
Miami Marlins at Houston Astros
Final score: Miami Marlins 5 · 8 Houston Astros. 8 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.13 | +3.2% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.41 | +40.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.92 | +29.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.78 | +15.8% | 9 | WIN |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.42 | +10.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.34 | +6.4% | 5 | WIN |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.44 | +4.6% | n/a | PUSH |
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.17 | +0.8% | 4 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Houston Astros or Miami Marlinsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | 20 | 40.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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