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MLB · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins
Final score: Boston Red Sox 4 · 2 Miami Marlins. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 7.5 | 1.89 | +5.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.64 | +44.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Adley Rutschman | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.95 | +40.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.32 | +36.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Heriberto Hernandez | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.25 | +34.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Esteury Ruiz | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.09 | +30.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.44 | +30.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.66 | +27.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.44 | +26.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.31 | +24.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +20.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.21 | +14.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.69 | +12.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brian Navarreto | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.69 | +9.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Esteury Ruiz | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.28 | +8.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.88 | +5.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Nick Sogard | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +3.1% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Miami Marlins or Boston Red Soxthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | 20 | 40.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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