Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
MLB · Sat, Sep 5, 2026
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: Atlanta Braves 2 · 4 Philadelphia Phillies. 15 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.35 | +4.2% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.65 | +33.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +32.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.90 | +31.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | +30.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.39 | +23.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.13 | +19.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.85 | +18.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.21 | +14.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Martin Perez | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.90 | +6.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.93 | +5.1% | 9 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +3.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.68 | +2.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.43 | +1.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Sean Murphy | Atlanta Braves | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.85 | +0.0% | n/a | PUSH |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Bravesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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