Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
MLB · Fri, Sep 11, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 5 · 6 Atlanta Braves. 8 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.56 | +4.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.45 | +22.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +19.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +15.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 1.81 | +10.8% | 6 | WIN |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.11 | +9.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.22 | +6.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.64 | +4.3% | 1 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Philliesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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