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NFL · Sun, Sep 13, 2026
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Final score: Miami Dolphins 13 · 27 Las Vegas Raiders. 20 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | -3 | 1.93 | +15.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.93 | +64.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.88 | +47.0% | 32 | WIN |
| Jalen Nailor | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.66 | +44.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 2.18 | +43.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jalen Nailor | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.89 | +37.5% | 27 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 179.5 | 1.88 | +33.2% | 220 | LOSS |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.71 | +29.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.90 | +29.4% | 39 | WIN |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.88 | +28.8% | 27 | WIN |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing Yards | under | 206.5 | 1.90 | +23.7% | 160 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.88 | +22.6% | 53 | LOSS |
| Jack Bech | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.22 | +21.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing Yards | under | 59.5 | 1.88 | +19.8% | 102 | LOSS |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +12.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.85 | +7.9% | 45 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.88 | +7.2% | 18 | LOSS |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.24 | +6.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jack Bech | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.86 | +6.0% | 23 | LOSS |
| De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.68 | +4.1% | 4 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Las Vegas Raiders or Miami Dolphinsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 41 | 39.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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