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NFL · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Final score: Miami Dolphins 28 · 25 New York Jets. 30 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.85 | +6.5% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -4.5 | 1.95 | +1.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 59.5 | 1.88 | +80.8% | 103 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.91 | +79.6% | 103 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +65.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.83 | +55.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Adonai Mitchell | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.37 | +51.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | under | 0.5 | 2.60 | +49.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Adonai Mitchell | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.90 | +36.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 185.5 | 1.90 | +34.7% | 208 | LOSS |
| Adonai Mitchell | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.88 | +33.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.88 | +32.8% | 86 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 183.5 | 1.89 | +32.5% | 208 | LOSS |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.88 | +31.0% | 27 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.65 | +30.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.88 | +29.4% | 86 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.87 | +27.3% | 27 | WIN |
| Chris Bell | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 20.5 | 1.87 | +23.9% | 25 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 30.5 | 1.91 | +20.1% | 37 | WIN |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.88 | +14.3% | 62 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.28 | +14.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | under | 222.5 | 1.90 | +11.3% | 287 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 33.5 | 1.90 | +11.0% | 37 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.25 | +9.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 64.5 | 1.88 | +7.8% | 26 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | under | 218.5 | 1.90 | +6.8% | 287 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.97 | +5.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.73 | +5.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.17 | +4.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Wright | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.89 | +0.3% | 8 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New York Jets or Miami Dolphins that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | 34 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | 33 | 45.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | 42 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 35 | 71.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 41 | 39.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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