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MLB · Sat, Sep 19, 2026
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
Final score: Atlanta Braves 6 · 3 Houston Astros. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.00 | +2.4% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 1.87 | +1.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.22 | +42.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +34.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.08 | +28.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.06 | +21.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.44 | +17.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.91 | +16.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.63 | +14.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.12 | +11.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +10.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.67 | +5.8% | 6 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Houston Astros or Atlanta Bravesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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