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NFL · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Final score: Los Angeles Rams 26 · 30 Denver Broncos. 46 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 45.5 | 1.91 | +0.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ferguson | Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.27 | +117.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Terrance Ferguson | Los Angeles Rams | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.92 | +90.1% | 9 | WIN |
| Terrance Ferguson | Los Angeles Rams | Receiving Yards | under | 49.5 | 1.90 | +88.0% | 9 | WIN |
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 50.5 | 1.91 | +55.0% | 49 | LOSS |
| Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 52.5 | 1.89 | +53.6% | 88 | WIN |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.24 | +52.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Davante Adams | Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.00 | +52.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 53.5 | 1.89 | +51.6% | 88 | WIN |
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.88 | +51.0% | 49 | LOSS |
| Pat Bryant | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.91 | +40.8% | 44 | WIN |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | +39.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Pat Bryant | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.91 | +37.4% | 44 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.90 | +32.5% | 7 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | over | 209.5 | 1.88 | +30.5% | 186 | LOSS |
| Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.89 | +30.2% | 88 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | over | 211.5 | 1.88 | +28.8% | 186 | LOSS |
| Davante Adams | Los Angeles Rams | Receiving Yards | under | 75.5 | 1.88 | +28.5% | 137 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.90 | +28.4% | 7 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | over | 212.5 | 1.88 | +26.2% | 186 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | over | 210.5 | 1.89 | +26.1% | 186 | LOSS |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 35.5 | 1.89 | +25.8% | 46 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.93 | +24.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 37.5 | 1.92 | +23.5% | 46 | WIN |
| Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 55.5 | 1.89 | +22.3% | 88 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +20.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | Passing Yards | over | 241.5 | 1.90 | +20.1% | 390 | WIN |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.04 | +19.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Davante Adams | Los Angeles Rams | Receiving Yards | under | 74.5 | 1.88 | +19.2% | 137 | LOSS |
| Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.59 | +18.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| Blake Corum | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 46.5 | 1.89 | +16.5% | 15 | LOSS |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.89 | +16.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.91 | +16.3% | 46 | WIN |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.91 | +14.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Blake Corum | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 47.5 | 1.88 | +13.7% | 15 | LOSS |
| Davante Adams | Los Angeles Rams | Receiving Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.88 | +12.8% | 137 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.88 | +12.8% | 10 | WIN |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.89 | +11.5% | 10 | WIN |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 2.36 | +10.3% | 13 | WIN |
| Pat Bryant | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.91 | +10.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.88 | +7.8% | 10 | WIN |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.88 | +7.0% | 10 | WIN |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | Passing Yards | over | 239.5 | 1.88 | +2.0% | 390 | WIN |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.83 | +1.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | Passing Yards | over | 240.5 | 1.88 | +1.1% | 390 | WIN |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | Passing Yards | over | 244.5 | 1.90 | +1.0% | 390 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Denver Broncos or Los Angeles Ramsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Sep 15, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 48.1% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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