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NFL · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Final score: Kansas City Chiefs 24 · 28 Denver Broncos. 21 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 40.5 | 1.93 | +4.2% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 29.5 | 1.86 | +61.4% | 13 | LOSS |
| Cyrus Allen | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +60.7% | 20 | WIN |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 6.5 | 1.85 | +50.5% | 128 | WIN |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.90 | +40.1% | 15 | WIN |
| Cyrus Allen | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 2.01 | +38.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.37 | +35.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 226.5 | 1.90 | +26.1% | 321 | WIN |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 49.5 | 1.89 | +25.3% | 53 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 88.5 | 1.88 | +22.8% | 69 | WIN |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.90 | +22.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 24.5 | 1.92 | +21.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.93 | +18.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +17.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.62 | +9.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Noah Gray | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.90 | +7.4% | 15 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | over | 201.5 | 1.89 | +4.6% | 222 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.90 | +4.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +2.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.93 | +1.9% | 15 | WIN |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.83 | +1.1% | 0 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Denver Broncos or Kansas City Chiefs that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 26, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | 30 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals | 35 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | 36 | 55.6% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 16, 2026 | Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos | 35 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | 18 | 55.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 23 | 34.8% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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