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NFL · Tue, Oct 6, 2026
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Final score: Atlanta Falcons 45 · 24 New Orleans Saints. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 47.5 | 1.95 | +5.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.88 | +36.2% | 35 | LOSS |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.30 | +34.9% | 6 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 42.5 | 1.91 | +28.2% | 59 | WIN |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.79 | +26.8% | 6 | WIN |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.90 | +26.7% | 23 | WIN |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.99 | +26.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.93 | +22.4% | 54 | LOSS |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.04 | +12.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.93 | +12.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.91 | +11.9% | 62 | LOSS |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.89 | +8.4% | 54 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.87 | +8.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.99 | +8.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.50 | +5.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.60 | +3.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Austin Hooper | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +2.4% | 1 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New Orleans Saints or Atlanta Falconsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | 45 | 64.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | 21 | 33.3% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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