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NFL · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final score: Atlanta Falcons 0 · 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 35 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 43.5 | 1.98 | +2.3% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.80 | +0.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.88 | +70.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 30.5 | 1.89 | +67.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.78 | +56.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.73 | +53.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.91 | +44.9% | 14 | LOSS |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.94 | +44.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.51 | +42.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.86 | +37.8% | 14 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 24.5 | 1.92 | +34.5% | 95 | LOSS |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +30.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ted Hurst III | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.84 | +27.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.92 | +26.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.92 | +24.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.71 | +20.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.23 | +19.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.71 | +18.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 213.5 | 1.88 | +17.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 211.5 | 1.90 | +16.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.91 | +15.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Austin Hooper | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.91 | +14.4% | 9 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | under | 69.5 | 1.90 | +14.1% | 170 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.88 | +11.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Ted Hurst III | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 33.5 | 1.87 | +8.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 79.5 | 1.88 | +4.6% | 76 | LOSS |
| Austin Hooper | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 1.53 | +3.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.88 | +3.5% | 140 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 2.5 | 1.97 | +3.2% | 11 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 30.5 | 1.88 | +2.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 81.5 | 1.90 | +2.4% | 76 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing Yards | under | 228.5 | 1.88 | +1.5% | 125 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing Yards | under | 227.5 | 1.90 | +1.2% | 125 | WIN |
| Ted Hurst III | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.87 | +1.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 31.5 | 1.89 | +0.7% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | 39 | 69.2% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons | 33 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 | 54.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | 37 | 40.5% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | 31 | 54.8% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 9, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys | 24 | 62.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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