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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Final score: Cleveland Browns 12 · 17 New York Jets. 42 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | -2.5 | 1.91 | +1.9% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.14 | +1.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.89 | +87.1% | 116 | LOSS |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 71.5 | 1.88 | +86.1% | 116 | LOSS |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.86 | +71.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.86 | +68.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.88 | +67.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Rushing Yards | under | 59.5 | 1.90 | +48.4% | 44 | WIN |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Rushing Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.92 | +47.7% | 44 | WIN |
| Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.00 | +31.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Denzel Boston | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 47.5 | 1.91 | +30.2% | 46 | LOSS |
| Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +29.0% | 19 | WIN |
| Raheim Sanders | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | under | 12.5 | 1.93 | +26.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Denzel Boston | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 49.5 | 1.90 | +25.0% | 46 | LOSS |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.69 | +23.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.89 | +23.5% | 24 | WIN |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.89 | +22.3% | 7 | WIN |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.92 | +21.7% | 24 | WIN |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | Rushing Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.93 | +21.6% | 40 | WIN |
| Raheim Sanders | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.32 | +19.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Isaiah Davis | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.85 | +19.8% | 8 | WIN |
| Raheim Sanders | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.53 | +18.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.94 | +17.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Isaiah Davis | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 12.5 | 1.88 | +17.3% | 8 | WIN |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.18 | +17.0% | 7 | LOSS |
| KC Concepcion | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.79 | +16.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | Passing Yards | over | 197.5 | 1.88 | +14.8% | 155 | LOSS |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 35.5 | 1.91 | +13.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 33.5 | 1.88 | +12.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.62 | +11.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.20 | +9.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| KC Concepcion | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.91 | +8.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.69 | +6.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Denzel Boston | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.79 | +6.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | Passing Yards | over | 205.5 | 1.89 | +6.5% | 155 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.54 | +5.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.93 | +4.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 28.5 | 1.92 | +3.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 66.5 | 1.88 | +3.5% | 104 | WIN |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.89 | +3.1% | 16 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 67.5 | 1.89 | +1.9% | 104 | WIN |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.74 | +0.9% | 1 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New York Jets or Cleveland Browns that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 35 | 71.4% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 2, 2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | 36 | 52.8% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Jets at Detroit Lions | 52 | 51.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns | 43 | 46.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | 24 | 37.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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