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NFL · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Final score: Baltimore Ravens 30 · 23 Atlanta Falcons. 31 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.45 | +10.4% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -3 | 2.02 | +8.6% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 43.5 | 1.91 | +4.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | Baltimore Ravens | Passing Yards | under | 174.5 | 1.90 | +65.8% | 201 | LOSS |
| Devontez Walker | Baltimore Ravens | Receptions | under | 0.5 | 2.60 | +65.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.13 | +33.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.17 | +33.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Devontez Walker | Baltimore Ravens | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.92 | +31.6% | 9 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 20.5 | 1.87 | +28.7% | 54 | LOSS |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.90 | +28.0% | 16 | WIN |
| Tyler Huntley | Baltimore Ravens | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +27.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Justice Hill | Baltimore Ravens | Rushing Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.87 | +25.6% | 73 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.93 | +24.9% | 8 | WIN |
| Derrick Henry | Baltimore Ravens | Rushing Yards | over | 78.5 | 1.88 | +24.4% | 102 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.69 | +24.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Zay Flowers | Baltimore Ravens | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.92 | +21.3% | 8 | LOSS |
| Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens | Receiving Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.90 | +20.9% | 28 | WIN |
| Zay Flowers | Baltimore Ravens | Receiving Yards | over | 69.5 | 1.91 | +20.4% | 53 | LOSS |
| Tyler Huntley | Baltimore Ravens | Rushing Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.86 | +20.0% | 20 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.65 | +17.5% | 7 | LOSS |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.87 | +15.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.91 | +15.3% | 32 | WIN |
| Rashod Bateman | Baltimore Ravens | Receiving Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.86 | +11.3% | 62 | LOSS |
| Justice Hill | Baltimore Ravens | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.90 | +11.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.83 | +9.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Rashod Bateman | Baltimore Ravens | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.17 | +9.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Derrick Henry | Baltimore Ravens | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +5.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Justice Hill | Baltimore Ravens | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.92 | +5.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 80.5 | 1.90 | +4.4% | 118 | WIN |
| Derrick Henry | Baltimore Ravens | Receiving Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.89 | +2.2% | 18 | WIN |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 0.5 | 2.75 | +1.2% | 0 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Falcons or Baltimore Ravens that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 6, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | 37 | 48.6% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | 55 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | 45 | 64.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | 23 | 60.9% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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