MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins
Final score: Baltimore Orioles 3 – 4 Miami Marlins. 47 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.09 | +0.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Jackson | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +88.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.15 | +82.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 2.20 | +63.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Heriberto Hernandez | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.52 | +47.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Samuel Basallo | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +41.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.10 | +40.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +38.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Dylan Beavers | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +36.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +36.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Heriberto Hernandez | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.70 | +33.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Esteury Ruiz | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.70 | +30.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.97 | +30.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Javier Sanoja | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.67 | +25.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.89 | +24.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.31 | +23.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Leo Jimenez | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.08 | +22.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Connor Norby | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.55 | +21.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Tyler O'Neill | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.40 | +21.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Jakob Marsee | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.43 | +20.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Colton Cowser | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.88 | +18.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Esteury Ruiz | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.12 | +17.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.66 | +16.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Blaze Alexander | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.21 | +16.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +15.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christopher Morel | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.33 | +14.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.80 | +12.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +12.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.87 | +12.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Dylan Beavers | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.24 | +10.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Samuel Basallo | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.91 | +10.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.39 | +9.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Jeremiah Jackson | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.43 | +7.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 2.09 | +7.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.51 | +6.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Blaze Alexander | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.29 | +6.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Christopher Morel | Miami Marlins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.05 | +4.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Connor Norby | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.40 | +4.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Christopher Morel | Miami Marlins | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.42 | +3.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Hits | over | 1.5 | 2.98 | +3.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.83 | +2.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Samuel Basallo | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.42 | +1.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Cade Povich | Baltimore Orioles | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.82 | +1.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Javier Sanoja | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.15 | +1.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dylan Beavers | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.00 | +1.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Jakob Marsee | Miami Marlins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +0.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.66 | +0.2% | 1 | LOSS |
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