MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Final score: Cleveland Guardians 8 – 5 Kansas City Royals. 69 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 6.54 | +96.2% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 11.5 | 1.74 | +13.2% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 9.5 | 1.96 | +4.9% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 9 | 2.02 | +3.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +151.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brayan Rocchio | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +126.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Carter Jensen | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +119.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +115.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Travis Bazzana | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +91.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 2.35 | +90.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.75 | +82.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Michael Massey | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +79.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.90 | +78.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Isaac Collins | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +76.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 2.10 | +72.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.25 | +67.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Isbel | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.00 | +67.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Isbel | Kansas City Royals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +63.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | Kansas City Royals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +59.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Travis Bazzana | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +54.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Kyle Manzardo | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.77 | +53.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +50.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 3.03 | +47.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Maikel Garcia | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.95 | +45.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Petey Halpin | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +40.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Bo Naylor | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.20 | +39.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.90 | +35.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Daniel Schneemann | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +34.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Isaac Collins | Kansas City Royals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +34.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.14 | +34.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Travis Bazzana | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.60 | +33.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.46 | +33.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.94 | +32.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Michael Massey | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.47 | +32.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Carter Jensen | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.70 | +32.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bo Naylor | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +32.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +31.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.85 | +30.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.83 | +29.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Bo Naylor | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.00 | +28.0% | 3 | WIN |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.90 | +27.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Manzardo | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.40 | +27.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Michael Massey | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +24.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Kyle Manzardo | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.25 | +23.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Maikel Garcia | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.70 | +23.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.26 | +22.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Daniel Schneemann | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.25 | +22.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Carter Jensen | Kansas City Royals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +20.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Petey Halpin | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.26 | +19.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brayan Rocchio | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.70 | +19.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Kyle Manzardo | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.68 | +18.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Isaac Collins | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.45 | +15.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +15.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.10 | +15.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.66 | +12.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Daniel Schneemann | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.22 | +12.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Petey Halpin | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.19 | +11.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Brayan Rocchio | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +11.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.86 | +10.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.47 | +8.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.62 | +8.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Bo Naylor | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.38 | +8.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Daniel Schneemann | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.50 | +7.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +7.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 3.02 | +6.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Petey Halpin | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.22 | +6.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Maikel Garcia | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.13 | +5.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.91 | +4.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Kyle Isbel | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.30 | +4.4% | 0 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
Members receive the daily Parlay of the Day plus every positive-EV pick the model generates across NBA, MLB and NHL match lines and player props. Membership is by application.