MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4 – 2 Arizona Diamondbacks. 63 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.83 | +2.7% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 9 | 1.91 | +0.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.60 | +139.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.10 | +117.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.75 | +110.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| James McCann | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +87.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alek Thomas | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +77.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Fernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.75 | +70.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 2.20 | +68.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jorge Barrosa | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +56.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.15 | +55.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.20 | +54.7% | 1 | WIN |
| James McCann | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.74 | +52.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Jose Fernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.40 | +44.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Adrian Del Castillo | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.87 | +43.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.26 | +42.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.40 | +41.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.49 | +39.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +37.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Joey Bart | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +36.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Jorge Barrosa | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.45 | +36.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.25 | +35.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Joey Bart | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +32.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Spencer Horwitz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.70 | +29.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jared Triolo | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.60 | +28.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.91 | +26.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.26 | +26.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +26.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Nolan Arenado | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.07 | +24.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +24.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Joey Bart | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.20 | +23.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +21.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.70 | +21.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 2.10 | +21.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.62 | +19.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Adrian Del Castillo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +19.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.04 | +18.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| James McCann | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.15 | +18.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Spencer Horwitz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +15.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.64 | +14.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Jorge Barrosa | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +13.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.00 | +13.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alek Thomas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.18 | +13.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.05 | +12.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Spencer Horwitz | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.24 | +12.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +11.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.26 | +11.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.72 | +11.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Jared Triolo | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.10 | +11.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.70 | +10.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.77 | +10.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +9.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.43 | +9.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Adrian Del Castillo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.30 | +8.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.61 | +8.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Spencer Horwitz | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.15 | +7.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.91 | +7.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.91 | +7.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.33 | +6.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.57 | +3.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.62 | +2.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Jared Triolo | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.40 | +1.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Joey Bart | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.33 | +0.1% | 1 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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