MLB · Fri, May 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 0 – 2 Boston Red Sox. 16 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.13 | +2.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +72.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jesse Scholtens | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.01 | +38.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +27.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.03 | +27.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.65 | +24.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.07 | +15.8% | 8 | WIN |
| Trevor Story | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.88 | +14.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +13.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +13.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +5.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +4.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.41 | +4.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Carlos Narvaez | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.32 | +4.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.39 | +2.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.48 | +0.4% | 0 | LOSS |
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