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MLB · Sat, May 9, 2026

Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds

Final score: Houston Astros 1 – 3 Cincinnati Reds. 46 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.

Final score1 – 3
Tracked picks46
Hit rate52.2%
Decided / Wins46 / 24

Match line picks

The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.

MarketPickLineOddsEVResult
Game Totalover5.52.02+24.0%LOSS
Moneylineaway02.41+12.5%LOSS
Game Totalover7.52.00+8.4%LOSS
Game Totalover81.85+2.1%LOSS

Player prop picks

Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.

PlayerTeamStatPickLineOddsEVActualResult
Zach ColeHouston AstrosRBIsover0.53.80+106.4%0LOSS
Christian VazquezHouston AstrosRBIsover0.54.75+105.2%0LOSS
Yordan AlvarezHouston AstrosRBIsover0.53.90+98.4%0LOSS
Christian WalkerHouston AstrosRBIsover0.54.00+94.9%0LOSS
JJ BledayCincinnati RedsRBIsover0.54.00+80.5%0LOSS
Elly De La CruzCincinnati RedsRBIsover0.53.50+74.3%1WIN
Sal StewartCincinnati RedsRBIsover0.53.20+66.1%0LOSS
Zach DezenzoHouston AstrosRBIsover0.53.35+58.4%0LOSS
Elly De La CruzCincinnati RedsHitsunder1.52.15+56.5%2LOSS
Christian WalkerHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.30+47.2%0LOSS
Brice MatthewsHouston AstrosHitsunder1.51.65+43.2%0WIN
Isaac ParedesHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.40+42.9%0LOSS
Nathaniel LoweCincinnati RedsRBIsover0.53.30+42.8%0LOSS
Ke'Bryan HayesCincinnati RedsHitsunder0.52.19+40.8%0WIN
Zach DezenzoHouston AstrosHitsunder1.51.65+39.3%0WIN
Zach ColeHouston AstrosHitsunder1.51.68+38.9%1WIN
Yordan AlvarezHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.05+38.6%1WIN
Cam SmithHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.60+38.5%0LOSS
Christian VazquezHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.35+35.8%0LOSS
Chase BurnsCincinnati RedsStrikeoutsunder6.52.18+32.2%2WIN
Matt McLainCincinnati RedsHitsover0.52.55+31.3%1WIN
Jose TrevinoCincinnati RedsHitsunder0.52.09+30.1%0WIN
Jose AltuveHouston AstrosHitsunder1.51.68+29.3%1WIN
TJ FriedlCincinnati RedsHitsover0.52.55+28.9%0LOSS
Will BensonCincinnati RedsHitsunder0.52.06+28.3%0WIN
Jose AltuveHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.15+28.2%1WIN
Spencer ArrighettiHouston AstrosStrikeoutsunder6.51.91+23.5%5WIN
JJ BledayCincinnati RedsHitsover0.52.15+22.4%0LOSS
Spencer SteerCincinnati RedsHitsover0.52.15+20.5%1WIN
Yordan AlvarezHouston AstrosHitsunder1.51.74+19.9%1WIN
Braden ShewmakeHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.35+19.0%1WIN
Elly De La CruzCincinnati RedsHitsover0.51.83+17.1%2WIN
Zach DezenzoHouston AstrosRBIsunder2.51.16+12.8%0WIN
Will BensonCincinnati RedsRBIsunder0.51.37+9.8%0WIN
Spencer ArrighettiHouston AstrosStrikeoutsover5.52.11+8.3%5LOSS
Ke'Bryan HayesCincinnati RedsRBIsunder0.51.28+7.8%0WIN
Brice MatthewsHouston AstrosHitsover0.52.30+7.7%0LOSS
Sal StewartCincinnati RedsHitsover0.51.80+6.3%1WIN
Nathaniel LoweCincinnati RedsHitsover0.52.00+5.5%0LOSS
Jose TrevinoCincinnati RedsRBIsunder0.51.32+4.7%0WIN
TJ FriedlCincinnati RedsRBIsunder0.51.32+1.9%0WIN
Zach ColeHouston AstrosHitsover0.51.93+1.8%1WIN

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