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MLB · Sat, May 9, 2026

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks

Final score: New York Mets 1 – 2 Arizona Diamondbacks. 47 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.

Final score1 – 2
Tracked picks47
Hit rate68.1%
Decided / Wins47 / 32

Match line picks

The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.

MarketPickLineOddsEVResult
Game Totalover5.52.10+19.5%LOSS
Moneylinehome02.09+14.6%WIN
Game Totalover6.52.00+8.7%LOSS
Game Totalunder9.51.93+6.6%WIN
Game Totalunder92.00+4.3%WIN
Game Totalunder8.52.00+0.4%WIN

Player prop picks

Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.

PlayerTeamStatPickLineOddsEVActualResult
Adrian Del CastilloArizona DiamondbacksRBIsover0.58.50+319.4%0LOSS
MJ MelendezNew York MetsHitsover0.55.75+198.1%0LOSS
Mark VientosNew York MetsRBIsover0.56.50+170.0%0LOSS
Ildemaro VargasArizona DiamondbacksRBIsover0.55.25+162.9%2WIN
Corbin CarrollArizona DiamondbacksRBIsover0.55.50+138.2%0LOSS
Mark VientosNew York MetsHitsover0.53.90+112.9%0LOSS
Carson BengeNew York MetsHitsover0.53.90+91.3%0LOSS
Juan SotoNew York MetsHitsover0.52.85+76.7%0LOSS
Jorge BarrosaArizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.53.90+66.2%0LOSS
Bo BichetteNew York MetsHitsover0.52.76+65.2%0LOSS
Ketel MarteArizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.52.95+64.3%1WIN
Adrian Del CastilloArizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.53.10+61.1%1WIN
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Arizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.52.65+48.1%0LOSS
Ildemaro VargasArizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.52.05+47.0%1WIN
Gabriel MorenoArizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.52.80+46.5%0LOSS
Marcus SemienNew York MetsHitsover0.52.65+46.4%1WIN
Nolan ArenadoArizona DiamondbacksRBIsover0.53.53+43.3%0LOSS
Francisco AlvarezNew York MetsHitsover0.52.65+39.1%0LOSS
Clay HolmesNew York MetsStrikeoutsover3.51.83+34.5%6WIN
Clay HolmesNew York MetsStrikeoutsover4.52.38+33.2%6WIN
Marcus SemienNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.62+30.8%1WIN
Mark VientosNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.55+25.9%0WIN
Brett BatyNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.46+25.7%1WIN
Geraldo PerdomoArizona DiamondbacksHitsover0.52.35+25.3%1WIN
Corbin CarrollArizona DiamondbacksHitsunder1.51.60+23.2%1WIN
Nolan ArenadoArizona DiamondbacksHitsunder1.51.51+17.5%1WIN
Bo BichetteNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.53+17.5%0WIN
Tyrone TaylorNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.29+17.4%1WIN
Brett BatyNew York MetsHitsover0.52.45+17.2%1WIN
Ketel MarteArizona DiamondbacksHitsunder1.51.45+16.5%1WIN
Francisco AlvarezNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.37+13.5%0WIN
Juan SotoNew York MetsHitsunder1.51.49+11.4%0WIN
Merrill KellyArizona DiamondbacksStrikeoutsover4.52.02+7.0%6WIN
Nolan ArenadoArizona DiamondbacksRBIsunder1.51.17+5.7%0WIN
Ildemaro VargasArizona DiamondbacksRBIsunder2.51.09+5.3%2WIN
Mark VientosNew York MetsRBIsunder1.51.17+5.1%0WIN
Francisco AlvarezNew York MetsRBIsunder0.51.43+4.7%0WIN
Ketel MarteArizona DiamondbacksRBIsunder0.51.56+4.1%0WIN
Brett BatyNew York MetsRBIsunder1.51.10+3.8%1WIN
Geraldo PerdomoArizona DiamondbacksHitsunder1.51.26+3.6%1WIN
Juan SotoNew York MetsRBIsunder0.51.60+0.6%0WIN

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