MLB · Sun, May 17, 2026
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
Final score: Cincinnati Reds 3 – 10 Cleveland Guardians. 18 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.40 | +5.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.31 | +96.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.98 | +40.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Brayan Rocchio | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.14 | +33.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Will Benson | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.00 | +31.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.69 | +29.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Patrick Bailey | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.93 | +24.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.54 | +15.7% | 2 | WIN |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.81 | +14.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 1.67 | +13.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.76 | +7.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Will Benson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.29 | +7.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.63 | +6.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Kyle Manzardo | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.45 | +1.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.34 | +1.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.48 | +0.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.48 | +0.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Patrick Bailey | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.29 | +0.1% | 0 | WIN |
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