MLB · Thu, May 21, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 6 – 2 St. Louis Cardinals. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 7.5 | 1.85 | +8.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.68 | +48.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.94 | +47.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.87 | +44.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.32 | +39.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.15 | +38.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.67 | +34.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.93 | +32.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.68 | +32.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jhostynxon Garcia | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.09 | +28.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 2.22 | +18.8% | 9 | WIN |
| Victor Scott II | St. Louis Cardinals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.24 | +0.4% | 0 | WIN |
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