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MLB · Thu, Jun 18, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Toronto Blue Jays 4 · 3 Boston Red Sox. 14 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 1.98 | +5.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.32 | +29.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ernie Clement | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.22 | +11.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Mickey Gasper | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.54 | +9.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +9.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Nathan Lukes | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.65 | +8.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.71 | +7.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +6.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +5.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Nathan Lukes | Toronto Blue Jays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +5.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.68 | +4.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.17 | +2.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.95 | +0.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Yohendrick Pinango | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +0.1% | 2 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jaysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 10 | 40.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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