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MLB · Tue, Jul 21, 2026
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Final score: San Diego Padres 8 · 3 Atlanta Braves. 13 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.67 | +4.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.15 | +28.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Reynaldo Lopez | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 1.65 | +26.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.79 | +21.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Mauricio Dubon | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.51 | +14.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.17 | +7.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.35 | +6.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.97 | +5.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.20 | +4.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +3.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.72 | +2.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.85 | +2.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +1.9% | 2 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Braves or San Diego Padresthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 14.3% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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