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MLB · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 8 · 7 Pittsburgh Pirates. 23 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.83 | +0.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.70 | +57.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.39 | +48.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.73 | +40.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Jacob Gonzalez | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.15 | +33.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Max Kepler | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.75 | +26.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.57 | +26.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 1.62 | +19.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.97 | +19.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.70 | +15.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.61 | +13.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.06 | +10.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +9.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +9.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.99 | +9.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +8.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +7.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.38 | +6.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.32 | +4.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +4.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.27 | +2.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +2.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.56 | +1.1% | 3 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Pirates or Arizona Diamondbacksthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 38 | 57.9% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 24 | 37.5% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | 28.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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