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MLB · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Final score: Toronto Blue Jays 6 · 8 Washington Nationals. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.69 | +3.8% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.16 | +45.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +33.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.73 | +26.1% | 1 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.92 | +17.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.30 | +16.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Tena | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.55 | +15.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.11 | +13.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Ernie Clement | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +9.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.27 | +6.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +4.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Alejandro Kirk | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.51 | +3.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Daulton Varsho | Toronto Blue Jays | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.38 | +3.4% | 0 | WIN |
| George Springer | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.27 | +0.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.22 | +0.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nathan Lukes | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +0.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +0.7% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Washington Nationals or Toronto Blue Jaysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 17 | 52.9% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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