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MLB · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
Final score: Toronto Blue Jays 3 · 1 Houston Astros. 9 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.17 | +27.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.85 | +23.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.34 | +16.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ernie Clement | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.42 | +13.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +6.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Nathan Lukes | Toronto Blue Jays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +5.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Yainer Diaz | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.32 | +4.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.31 | +3.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.61 | +3.1% | 6 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Houston Astros or Toronto Blue Jaysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 21, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 37.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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