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MLB · Wed, Aug 19, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 7 · 6 Boston Red Sox. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +4.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.92 | +43.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.29 | +37.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.88 | +31.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.17 | +29.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +25.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.26 | +21.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +20.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +17.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nolan Arenado | Arizona Diamondbacks | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.86 | +17.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.83 | +14.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 1.94 | +11.9% | 6 | WIN |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +11.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.27 | +11.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.85 | +7.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Adley Rutschman | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +3.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +0.6% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Boston Red Sox or Arizona Diamondbacksthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 38 | 57.9% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 24 | 37.5% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 10 | 40.0% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 25 | 24.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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