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MLB · Wed, Sep 2, 2026
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: San Diego Padres 3 · 7 Cincinnati Reds. 10 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 9.5 | 1.89 | +9.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.14 | +40.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +25.2% | 2 | WIN |
| TJ Friedl | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.01 | +22.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +19.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.55 | +8.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.03 | +7.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +4.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +3.5% | 5 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.12 | +1.3% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Cincinnati Reds or San Diego Padresthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 14.3% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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