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NFL · Sun, Sep 13, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Final score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 · 33 Cincinnati Bengals. 28 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | -3.5 | 1.93 | +5.9% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 50.5 | 1.93 | +2.2% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.49 | +45.5% | 7 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 270.5 | 1.89 | +40.5% | 254 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.09 | +38.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | under | 64.5 | 1.88 | +37.0% | 59 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.26 | +34.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Andrei Iosivas | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.14 | +33.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Andrei Iosivas | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.93 | +31.2% | 12 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.86 | +30.9% | 48 | WIN |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.84 | +28.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | under | 86.5 | 1.89 | +26.4% | 12 | WIN |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.90 | +24.9% | 63 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.93 | +22.7% | 20 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.88 | +20.4% | 45 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.88 | +20.1% | 15 | LOSS |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.92 | +14.5% | 30 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 232.5 | 1.88 | +11.0% | 216 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.90 | +10.6% | 56 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.99 | +10.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 6.5 | 1.90 | +6.1% | 30 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.91 | +5.5% | 20 | WIN |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.46 | +2.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 23.5 | 1.88 | +2.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.83 | +1.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing TDs | under | 2.5 | 1.48 | +1.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Cade Otton | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 33.5 | 1.88 | +0.7% | 26 | WIN |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.88 | +0.2% | 78 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Cincinnati Bengals or Tampa Bay Buccaneersthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 48.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 50 | 48.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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