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MLB · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Cleveland Guardians 3 · 2 Boston Red Sox. 25 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.76 | +2.9% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 6.5 | 2.04 | +2.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Bazzana | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.34 | +67.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brayan Rocchio | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.24 | +60.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Adley Rutschman | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.38 | +52.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Hedges | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.19 | +50.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.46 | +42.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.83 | +36.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jo Adell | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.98 | +35.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nate Eaton | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.49 | +31.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jahmai Jones | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.89 | +29.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 2.12 | +29.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.19 | +27.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.22 | +25.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nate Eaton | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.76 | +18.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nick Sogard | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.96 | +15.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| David Fry | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.71 | +14.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.19 | +12.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Hedges | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +10.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.67 | +10.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.88 | +7.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Roman Anthony | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.63 | +5.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Nick Sogard | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.76 | +3.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Brayan Rocchio | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.74 | +0.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Travis Bazzana | Cleveland Guardians | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.71 | +0.1% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Boston Red Sox or Cleveland Guardiansthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 17 | 41.2% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 25 | 40.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 9 | 22.2% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 10 | 40.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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