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NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final score: Cincinnati Bengals 27 · 30 Pittsburgh Steelers. 50 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | 3.5 | 1.95 | +5.4% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 42.5 | 1.91 | +1.4% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.28 | +77.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.90 | +54.9% | 49 | LOSS |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.13 | +52.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.88 | +50.3% | 49 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.63 | +47.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 23.5 | 1.87 | +41.3% | 49 | LOSS |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.14 | +37.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +36.4% | 9 | LOSS |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.91 | +31.8% | 30 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 52.5 | 1.92 | +31.6% | 31 | WIN |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.88 | +29.7% | 30 | WIN |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.92 | +29.2% | 30 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.90 | +28.2% | 31 | WIN |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.71 | +24.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 2.13 | +23.5% | 9 | LOSS |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.90 | +23.3% | 31 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 63.5 | 1.89 | +22.6% | 61 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | under | 219.5 | 1.91 | +20.5% | 292 | LOSS |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.83 | +20.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.45 | +20.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +18.2% | 67 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | under | 6.5 | 1.95 | +17.6% | 13 | LOSS |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 23.5 | 1.89 | +16.7% | 60 | LOSS |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.96 | +16.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 53.5 | 1.91 | +14.7% | 90 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 255.5 | 1.89 | +13.5% | 282 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | under | 221.5 | 1.88 | +13.0% | 292 | LOSS |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.87 | +12.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 254.5 | 1.88 | +12.0% | 282 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.90 | +11.8% | 127 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 76.5 | 1.90 | +11.6% | 98 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.90 | +11.5% | 10 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 62.5 | 1.87 | +11.3% | 61 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.92 | +10.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.93 | +10.3% | 8 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | under | 218.5 | 1.88 | +9.8% | 292 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.76 | +9.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.90 | +9.0% | 8 | LOSS |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 249.5 | 1.89 | +7.7% | 282 | LOSS |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.89 | +7.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 54.5 | 1.92 | +7.2% | 90 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 56.5 | 1.91 | +7.1% | 90 | WIN |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 75.5 | 1.88 | +6.7% | 98 | WIN |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 77.5 | 1.88 | +3.0% | 98 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 252.5 | 1.90 | +2.4% | 282 | LOSS |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.91 | +2.4% | 37 | WIN |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 7.5 | 1.84 | +1.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.89 | +0.2% | 127 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Steelers or Cincinnati Bengalsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 75.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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