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NFL · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 16 · 10 New Orleans Saints. 46 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 43.5 | 1.95 | +1.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.07 | +59.8% | 6 | WIN |
| Germie Bernard | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 55.5 | 1.88 | +54.1% | 27 | WIN |
| Germie Bernard | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.89 | +51.5% | 27 | WIN |
| Germie Bernard | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.20 | +46.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 31.5 | 1.88 | +46.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 33.5 | 1.91 | +44.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.93 | +35.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.91 | +35.4% | 56 | WIN |
| Rico Dowdle | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 29.5 | 1.93 | +35.0% | 41 | WIN |
| Kendre Miller | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.86 | +33.5% | 6 | WIN |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing Yards | over | 216.5 | 1.90 | +32.2% | 278 | WIN |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.93 | +29.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.90 | +25.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Rico Dowdle | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 7.5 | 1.91 | +24.5% | 45 | WIN |
| Kendre Miller | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 4.5 | 1.85 | +24.2% | 22 | LOSS |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.88 | +22.0% | 20 | WIN |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.27 | +21.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.92 | +19.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Kendre Miller | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 3.5 | 1.91 | +19.2% | 22 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing Yards | over | 231.5 | 1.90 | +19.1% | 278 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.39 | +17.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.93 | +16.9% | 57 | LOSS |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.13 | +16.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 12.5 | 1.85 | +16.2% | 57 | LOSS |
| Noah Fant | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.88 | +16.2% | 11 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.90 | +15.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.60 | +15.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.69 | +14.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 30.5 | 1.88 | +14.8% | 20 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.60 | +13.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 75.5 | 1.91 | +13.0% | 56 | LOSS |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 76.5 | 1.91 | +11.3% | 56 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.91 | +10.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Bryce Lance | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +9.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.83 | +9.1% | 6 | WIN |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.85 | +7.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Noah Fant | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.95 | +6.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 1.5 | 1.93 | +5.8% | 6 | WIN |
| Bryce Lance | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.88 | +5.3% | 12 | LOSS |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 43.5 | 1.88 | +4.8% | 54 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.91 | +3.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Bryce Lance | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.90 | +2.1% | 12 | LOSS |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 6.5 | 2.12 | +0.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.88 | +0.3% | 36 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | under | 234.5 | 1.89 | +0.1% | 212 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New Orleans Saints or Pittsburgh Steelers that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | 40 | 30.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 | 54.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | 31 | 51.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | 33 | 48.5% | View → |
| Tue, Oct 6, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 2, 2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | 36 | 52.8% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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